Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.033209 0.037809 0.042851 0.048794 0.055616 0.063211 0.072320
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.026326 0.032652 0.040234 0.050022 0.062361 0.077457 0.097407
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.021927 0.028792 0.037528 0.049518 0.065632 0.086663 0.116392
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.019658 0.027049 0.036929 0.051193 0.071412 0.099270 0.140950
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.016863 0.024126 0.034242 0.049483 0.072078 0.104676 0.155873
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.014905 0.022077 0.032439 0.048658 0.073695 0.111349 0.173150
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.013025 0.019894 0.030148 0.046754 0.073334 0.114832 0.185712
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.012326 0.019399 0.030297 0.048546 0.078813 0.127844 0.214965
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.011703 0.018940 0.030425 0.050269 0.084301 0.141384 0.246681
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.011144 0.018514 0.030541 0.051943 0.089831 0.155520 0.281100
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.010284 0.017493 0.029562 0.051621 0.091818 0.163653 0.305568
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.009526 0.016573 0.028653 0.051306 0.093738 0.171796 0.330944
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.008808 0.015671 0.027722 0.050905 0.095552 0.180124 0.358147
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.008413 0.015312 0.027726 0.052241 0.100814 0.195626 0.401886
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.007801 0.014494 0.026808 0.051712 0.102351 0.203952 0.431776
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.007540 0.014311 0.027054 0.053466 0.108633 0.222524 0.486082
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.006879 0.013294 0.025608 0.051674 0.107394 0.225296 0.505693
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.006388 0.012569 0.024665 0.050811 0.108002 0.232026 0.535151
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.005823 0.011648 0.023251 0.048818 0.105941 0.232661 0.550313
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.005697 0.011610 0.023626 0.050693 0.112646 0.253696 0.617686
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.005567 0.011553 0.023956 0.052497 0.119381 0.275569 0.690267
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.005438 0.011483 0.024252 0.054251 0.126186 0.298397 0.768607
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.005139 0.011023 0.023663 0.053913 0.127959 0.309215 0.816724